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Vinay Gowda

Research Analyst

Crisil Ltd.

Bulls Eye

Vinay Gowda

04 May 2016

Vinay Gowda

Investment Style:

Equity Research Analyst - working at CRISIL Ltd. 5+ years in Markets,
Value Investor - Understand economy, business, sector, company, Fundamental Analysis, Valuation.

Organisation Details:

About CRISIL Limited
CRISIL is a global, agile and innovative analytics company driven by its mission of making markets function better. We are India’s foremost provider of ratings, data, research, analytics and solutions. A strong track record of growth, culture of innovation and global footprint sets us apart. We have delivered independent opinions, actionable insights, and efficient solutions to over 100,000 customers.

We are majority owned by S&P Global Inc., a leading provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide.

About CRISIL Global Research & Analytics
CRISIL Global Research & Analytics (GR&A) is the world's largest and top-ranked provider of high-end research and analytics services. We are the world's largest provider of equity and fixed income research support to banks, and the foremost provider of end-to-end risk and analytics services to trading and risk management functions at world's leading financial institutions. We provide corporate research and analytics solutions to operations, strategy, and sales and marketing teams of corporations globally. Coalition provides analytics and business intelligence to 14 leading global investment banks. We operate from 8 research centers in Argentina, China, India and Poland, working with clients across time zones and languages. Being part of CRISIL enables us to attract and retain top quality talent. We have over 2,300 employees, 75% of whom hold advanced degrees in finance, accounting and management. We employ the largest number of CFAs and CFA aspirants in India. We have won top honours at the World HR Congress on Talent Management and HR Project for the year 2015. We have also won the NASSCOM Exemplary Talent Practices Award (NExT Practices) for skill development for two years in succession in 2011 and 2012. The award recognizes us as a firm that has the vision to proactively invest in its people and get them future-ready.

We are committed to delivering cutting-edge analysis, opinions, and solutions. This underscores our proposition of being the best people to work with.

Linkedin:

Research Reports :

Apollo Hospital Target: Rs 1565.00
28 Dec 16

Based on the strong...

Rising income levels, ageing population, growing health awareness and changing attitude towards preventive healthcare is expected to boost healthcare services demand in future. Robust Financials in Hospital and Pharmacy Business, steady performance, improvement in bed occupancy and margins to drive earnings.

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Kansai Nerolac Target: Rs 412.00
26 Sep 16

With its substantial liquidity and financial strength along with long product life cycles, the company is well positioned to address challenges related to technology evolution through acquisitions and internal investments. Capacity expansion by 23%, expected PE expansion, revenue CAGR of 16% for FY17-FY21 will drive stock price in the future. Potential Catalysts  Rising demand in Urban India, attributable to increased purchasing power and changing consumer preferences.  Government’s sharp focus on infrastructure - Make in India, Housing for All, Smart Cities Mission, Sagarmala Project, Bharat Mala Project, Rurban Mission.  Improved economic growth and lower inflation levels resulted in increased consumption.  Recovery in automotive segments to increase paint consumption.  Expansion plants to increase total output capacity by 23%.

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Aurobindo Pharm Target: Rs 990.00
30 May 16

Improvement in exec...

 Domestic pharma market to clock $55bn by 2020 primarily driven by rising urbanization with revenue CAGR 16% for FY16-FY18  New launches have picked up with approvals and expect faster approvals to continue  Sales in US to drive growth. Expect revenue CAGR of 16% for FY16-FY18 better than industry average and margins to improve over 200bps  Lower long term debt and improving Interest coverage ratio may improve credit rating which can boost stock prices.

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Stylam Ind Target: Rs 258.00
07 Apr 16

Potential Catalysts  Significant growth opportunities  Implementation of GST to benefit the company  High potential and growing demand from both domestic as well as international market and Increase in Per Capita Income of a common person.  Strategic spending on R&D to generate cash flow in the future.  Diversifying customer base

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UPL Target: Rs 581.00
05 Apr 16

Focus on innovation...

UPL has excellent management which has delivered desired results year over year. Current series of cost reduction measure, cost leadership, implementing innovative technology, product policy, and price policy will help UPL achieve desired growth and margins. Excellent customer relationship and cash flow improvement to remain key drivers for the stock. Considering all the factors we have arrived at a valuation of Rs 489 per share for FY16 using DCF valuation and a target of Rs 581 for FY17. We recommend BUY at current market price of 457 and can keep for price target of 581 for FY17 (15.13x Forward PE FY17).

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UPL Target: Rs 581.00
05 Apr 16

Focus on innovation...

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Alkem Lab
09 Dec 15

Considering company...

 Alkem Labs is 5th largest pharmaceutical company in India in terms of domestic sales.  Alkem Labs products are also sold in 56 countries. In the United States, company has filed 66 abbreviated new drug applications.  Company sells a range of high-quality, cost effective generic drugs to major drug chains, pharmaceutical retailers, wholesalers, food and grocery stores, distributors and managed care companies in the United States.

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SecureKloud Technologies Target: Rs 2335.00
09 Nov 15

Healthy acquisition...

Potential Catalysts  Healthy acquisitions in Healthcare and Pharma Sector to gain more market share of Cloud Industry will be driving force.  Govt. policies like Obama care and Digital India to boost additional revenue.  Exceptional Revenue growth and PAT growth in triple digit.  Excellent opportunity in Cloud and IoT industry which is expected to grow more than 20% for next few years. Recommendation 8K Miles has a strong market share for its core products that make up over 100% of revenue. With its substantial liquidity and financial strength along with strong recurring revenue streams, high customer retention rates due to high software switching costs, the company is well positioned to address challenges related to technology evolution through acquisitions and internal investments. We recommend BUY on the stock at CMP of Rs.1700 to target of Rs. 2335 (Forward EPS of 64xFY16) for the FY16.

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Colgate
24 Sep 15

Predominance in oral care proceeds with sustained overall market share with Expanding infiltration, per-capita utilization to help development

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HCL Tech Target: Rs 1090.00
23 Sep 15

With Superior proje...

HCL is currently trading at 915 per share with a market capitalization of 1.3 Lakh Crores. It has total debt of 825.21Cr with long term Debt to Equity of 0.04. It has total cash and bank balance of 7911.08 Cr. Its payout increased to 37% (FY15) from 28% last year (FY14). We value HCL using DCF at price target of 1090 for FY16 with expected growth rate at 16.54% per annum. For valuation we assume that over the period company will keep capital structure unaltered and tax rate unchanged.

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Kellton Tech Target: Rs 113.00
03 Aug 15

Massive expansion plans. Company made a whooping total of 8 acquisitions in last three years. Synergic growth in revenue and earnings because of the acquisitions. Investments in future technology which has potential to grow fast. Promoters and management increasing stake in company. Revenue expected to increase 3.5 times for next fiscal. With experienced promoters, strong margins and its planned expansion KELLTON will be able to grow exponentially over the next few years. We recommend BUY on the stock at CMP of Rs. 75 to target of Rs. 113 (PE of 23.74x March FY16) over next 1 year.

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Kitex Garments Target: Rs 1173.00
03 Aug 15

Strong margins and ...

Eyeing organic and inorganic growth through expansion into newer geographies. In final stage of a brand launch and tie-up with US brand. Investment in capital expenditure may yield excess return. Sustained operating margins. We believe that KITEX will be able to sustain its operating and profit margins throughout our forecasted period. With strong and experienced promoters, strong margins and its planned expansion plans, we are recommending a BUY on the stock at the CMP (31.24XFY17E EPS) for a target of Rs.1173 (44.5X FY17E EPS of Rs.28.10) over the next 1 year.

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